Every daily email compared against its own category baseline — apply (coaching), product (Masterclass / Tackling Texting), and content (podcast / video / posts) — plus list growth, churn, and application/intent signals from the weekly BerserkerMail export.
Data cutoff: November 5, 2026
Last two weeks shown (Oct 23 – Nov 5), so recent still-accumulating sends don't shrink the table. Baselines are the trailing 90 days, full-list sends only: apply 32.0% open / 0.10% click · product 32.5% / 0.27% · content 31.3% / 2.08%. Deltas are against the email's own category. (This is a four-week catch-up report — Oct 9–22 sends are scored in the baselines and in the Standouts below but not listed here.)
| Date | Subject | Type | Open | Δ Open | Click | Δ Click | Unsubs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | Change Your Life With Basic Advice You’ve Heard Dozens of Times | apply | 32.0% | +0.0 | 0.06% | −0.04 | 8 |
| Oct 24 | “Do you know any good guys?” | apply | 32.1% | +0.1 | 0.05% | −0.05 | 6 |
| Oct 26 | Replacing Rare Chemistry After a Breakup | apply | 32.0% | +0.1 | 0.06% | −0.04 | 6 |
| Oct 27 | Going Dutch | apply | 32.8% | +0.8 | 0.09% | −0.01 | 3 |
| Oct 28 | Ever Googled this at 2am? | apply | 30.7% | −1.2 | 0.06% | −0.04 | 4 |
| Oct 29 | Sweet, sweet release | apply | 30.2% | −1.7 | 0.06% | −0.04 | 4 |
| Oct 30 | The Coward’s Exit | apply | 31.3% | −0.7 | 0.03% | −0.07 | 1 |
| Oct 31 | How to avoid letting the dark side of women ruin you | apply | 31.2% | −0.8 | 0.06% | −0.04 | 4 |
| Nov 1 | Applying the 3 Pillars of Attraction to Halloween | product | 29.6% | −2.9 | 0.14% | −0.13 | 2 |
| Nov 2 | Is dominating women for simps? | content | 19.6% | −11.7 | 1.33% | −0.75 | 3 |
| Nov 3 | Using the Birds to get girls | product | 28.9% | −3.6 | 0.11% | −0.16 | 6 |
| Nov 4 | Defending this spicy latina * | apply | 29.1% | — | 0.06% | — | 0 |
| Nov 5 | 2 warring perspectives on how to fix a sexless marriage * | content | 25.0% | — | 0.68% | — | 12 |
Highest unsub rates of the last month (Oct 6 – Nov 5, full-list sends). Busier board than last month: the Oct 9 send is the first over the 0.2% flag line since the summer, and six sends sit at 0.16% or higher — four of them in the Oct 18–22 stretch that followed the Masterclass push.
| Type | Date | Unsub Rate | Lost | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great prompts that will get you laid! | apply | Oct 9 | 0.23% | 15 |
| 2 warring perspectives on how to fix a sexless marriage * | content | Nov 5 | 0.19% | 12 |
| The 4 Filters That Keep Bad Women Out | apply | Oct 22 | 0.17% | 11 |
| Advanced strategy for restarting desire in marriage | content | Oct 20 | 0.17% | 11 |
| 2 (or 3) ways to tell your brother not to propose | apply | Oct 21 | 0.16% | 10 |
| Shane Gillis Was Right | product | Oct 18 | 0.16% | 10 |
Four weekly snapshots were missed, so this window is one 28-day diff. Per-week figures below are averages across it.
Average open rate on full-list sends fell every month from October 2025 (39.5%) through June (32.5%), ticked up in July (33.1%), then settled: August 32.3%, September 32.0%, and now October closed at 32.3% on 28 sends (+0.3pt) — three months inside a half-point band. Within the month there was no step-down; the step-down described in Standouts starts Oct 30 and belongs to November, whose bar appears once the month has enough matured data (rule: no current-month bar until month-end; past mid-month it may show excluding the final week’s sends). The page benchmarks against a trailing 90-day baseline, not all-time, for exactly this reason.
The headline metric. For each join-week cohort, we check every subscriber's status at the first snapshot at least 7 days after they joined. Current answer: a new subscriber has a ~77% chance of surviving their first week (465 of 601 measurable) — down from ~80%, and the drop is mostly the Oct 8 batch plus a measurement artifact explained under the chart. This series gains one bar per week as snapshots accumulate.
Measurable subscribers in parentheses. † No snapshot exists between Oct 6 and Nov 3, so the October cohorts are measured at their first available snapshot — 2 to 4 weeks after joining, not 1 — and understate true 1-week survival; they'll stay as-is (the measurement can't be redone), so read them as "retained at ~3 weeks." Jun 29, Jul 27, Oct 26, and Nov 2 cohorts omitted (too few measurable). The Oct 5 bar is the Oct 8 batch: 113 measurable, 69% — the lowest since the Jun 1 paid spike (75%), which it resembles. The Sep 28 Twitter cohort landed its real reading at 83%.
Cohort size in parentheses. Jun 29, Jul 27, and Nov 2 cohorts omitted (under 10 subscribers). Each cohort's bar updates with every new snapshot, turning this into a survival curve. A month of settling: the Sep 28 cohort came down from its 96% opening read to 78%, Sep 21 from 82 → 73%, Aug 3 from 70 → 65%, and the veteran flush reached the spring cohorts (Apr 20: 68 → 60%, May 18: 60 → 53%). The Oct 5 batch cohort sits at 69% after four weeks — a pace that puts it on the Jun 1 paid-spike curve (59% at 22 weeks), not the organic one.
% of each join-week cohort carrying the "Downloaded Self-Audit" tag as of Nov 3. The tag went live ~Jul 19; since then organic cohorts download at roughly 45–60%. The Oct 5 bar (15%) is the Oct 8 batch again — those 79 subscribers largely never saw the self-audit step, which is the clearest evidence they didn't come through the normal opt-in path. The three cohorts after it are back in the organic band (57 / 44 / 56%).
| Window | Real New / wk | Unsubs / wk | Net / wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9–23 (14d, averaged) | +34.5 | −20 | +14.5 |
| Jun 23–30 | +26 | −19 | +7 |
| Jun 30–Jul 7 | +3 | −23 | −20 |
| Jul 7–14 | +23 | −21 | +2 |
| Jul 14–28 (14d, averaged) | +16.5 | −18.5 | −2 |
| Jul 28–Aug 4 | +4 | −31 | −27 |
| Aug 4–11 | +20 | −21 | −1 |
| Aug 11–18 | +11 | −24 | −13 |
| Aug 18–25 | +26 | −18 | +8 |
| Aug 25–Sep 1 | +16 | −29 | −13 |
| Sep 1–8 | +11 | −23 | −12 |
| Sep 8–15 | +14 | −25 | −11 |
| Sep 15–22 | +19 | −15 | +4 |
| Sep 22–29 | +16 | −17 | −1 |
| Sep 29–Oct 6 | +22 | −22 | 0 |
| Oct 6–Nov 3 (28d, averaged) | +48.8 | −20.5 | +28.3 |
Every full-list send is classified on two axes. Tone: light (warm, funny, celebratory), medium (analytical or story-driven with stakes), heavy (dread — divorce, betrayal, loneliness). Selling strategy: proof (testimonials, track record, community, credentials), insight (selling by demonstrating the thinking), tension (analyze the problem deeply, build tension, pitch into it). Splits below: last week vs. the trailing 4 weeks.
| Tone | Last week (Oct 30 – Nov 5) | Last 4 weeks (Oct 9 – Nov 5) |
|---|---|---|
| Light | 2 of 7 (29%) | 7 of 26 (27%) |
| Medium | 5 of 7 (71%) | 19 of 26 (73%) |
| Heavy | 0 of 7 (0%) | 0 of 26 (0%) |
| Selling strategy | Last week (Oct 30 – Nov 5) | Last 4 weeks (Oct 9 – Nov 5) |
|---|---|---|
| Proof | 0 of 7 (0%) | 3 of 26 (12%) |
| Insight | 4 of 7 (57%) | 16 of 26 (62%) |
| Tension | 3 of 7 (43%) | 7 of 26 (27%) |
Tone/Strategy columns of sent-emails.csv.
Categories. Every email is classified by its CTA: apply → patstedman.com/apply (1-on-1 coaching), product → the Masterclass or Tackling Texting sales pages, content → a podcast, video, or post. Comparisons are always within category — a content email's 2% click rate and an apply email's 0.15% are both normal.
Baselines. Trailing 90 days, full-list sends only. All-time averages are inflated by the higher-open era of late 2025.
Excluded outliers. Sends under 1,000 recipients are excluded from all averages — these are segmented sends to buyers, event registrants, or sales-page visitors (e.g., "The Dynamic Man Masterclass is HERE" at 83% open to 249 buyers, the Forbidden Intimacy Deep Dive emails at ~380 registrants, "Your Free Call" to 24 people). They're a different audience, not a signal about copy. The most recent 2 days of sends are shown but not scored, since opens are still accumulating.
Conversion proxy. BerserkerMail doesn't report per-email revenue, and buyer counts aren't reported here (retired 2026-10-09 — too small-n to mean anything weekly). The coaching-side conversion metric is "Application Submitted" tags; product-side signal is intent clicks on the sales pages.